Bitcoin Price Prediction March 2014 through July 2014

I developed the graph below which shows a trendline with an R squared value of 0.9097 (1.0 being perfect) that fits the bitcoin price from 9/13/2011 up to today. The trend would put the price of a single bitcoin today at $566.66, which is $68.33 under the current bitstamp price of $634.99.

Bitcoin Market Analysis 3/2014 through 7/2014

Bitcoin Market Analysis 3/2014 through 7/2014

The recent fall of bitcoin price of about $200 over the past 2 months may be a sign that the price is currently undergoing a correction and I personally would not be surprised to see it drop to the high $550-590 area this month.

With that being said, the trend would show bitcoin price increasing over the next 3 months. Here are my predictions from today, March 16, 2014 to July 16, 2014.

My Predictions:
March 2014 – May see a drop to high $550-590’s.
4/16/2014 – $694 per bitcoin
5/16/2014 – $845 per bitcoin
6/16/2014 – $1,036 per bitcoin
7/16/2014 – $1,262 per bitcoin

Strategy
I would sell some bitcoin now and see if the bitcoin market drops a bit in the next few days. Then by 3/26/14 I would re-buy bitcoin at or below $605 per coin and enjoy the ride up.

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Bitcoin Donations

Bitcoin Donations

Note: Please remember this is my opinion and my analysis of the bitcoin market. You are responsible for your own investment choices. Also note that I am bullish on long term bitcoin and have bitcoin investments myself

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3 Comments

  1. xe99 says:

    May I ask what charting software you are using? Is it your own creation from scratch?

    I’m new to Bitcoin and learning to read charts. I’d love to replicate the same chart on my home pc. Unfortunately i’m not math literate and am trying to figure out your equations.

  2. lyth0s says:

    I used Microsoft Excel to create the chart from the previous bitcoin prices. The equation is using the best fit line of an exponential equation on a semi-log chart of the Y-axis (bitcoin price). What you would need to do is gather the bitcoin prices on each date from another source then use that data to create the graph.

  3. xe99 says:

    i dont understand much of excel charting yet, my mission for next week to start learning, so forgive the very elementary questions.

    the formula for “y” you show in the right margin of your chart above “y=6E-117e 0.0066x would be entered and becomes and creates the “y” axis display?

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